America’s Model for Smart Growth


Regional Demographics

The Fredericksburg Region is identified as Spotsylvania County, Stafford County, King George County, Caroline County, and the City of Fredericksburg. It’s population and economy are perennial growth leaders in the Commonwealth of Virginia and nationally.

Here are a few regional highlights:

  • Over the past 10 years, the Fredericksburg Region’s average annual population growth has been 2.4% compared to 1.1% for Virginia and 0.9% for the nation during the same period.
  • Fredericksburg has been the fastest growing locality since 2010, increasing by more than 15%.
  • Population growth through 2023 is forecasted to grow by 2.7% annually compared to 0.8% for the U.S.
  • Through 2023, employment is forecasted to grow 3.2% annually creating a total of 34,386 jobs.
  • The forecasted average annual growth rate for working age adults (20-64) from 2013 to 2023 is 2.4% for the Fredericksburg Region compared to 0.6% for Virginia and 0.3% for the U.S.
  • It is the 4th largest market in the U.S. with over 334,000 residents and 7,030 firms.
  • 35 miles south of D.C. and 50 miles north of Richmond.
  • 60% of the nation’s population within 750 miles.
  • 3 international airports.
  • 2 seaports within 2 hours.
  • In 2012, businesses in the region were awarded $594 million in defense contracts.

Urban Crescent Demographics

Urban Crescent 450x695More than 70 percent of the nation’s population and jobs are located in 11 megaregions identified by Regional Plan Association. The Washington D.C. area, down to Norfolk, Virginia, makes up the Megapolitan Area identified as the Chesapeake Region. These megas profile the nation’s biggest market opportunities.

Virginia’s Urban Crescent connects Baltimore, Maryland to Norfolk, Virginia with the metropolitan statistical areas of Washington D.C., Fredericksburg and Richmond in between. Although only 15% of the Commonwealth’s landmass, the Urban Crescent represents 64% of the Virginia’s population and 79% of its economy. Carmel Church Station is uniquely located at the intersection of the main transportation arteries of the Urban Crescent. Interstate 64, Interstate 95 and the CSX/Amtrak rail lines move people and goods throughout this dynamic region.

The Urban Crescent population is projected to grow 40% by 2030. Virginia alone will add 3.8 million people, 1.3 million housing units, and 2.8 million jobs by 2040. In 2013, the Commonwealth ranked 14th in growth rate compared with other states and still grew faster than the national average. Virginia added 74,531 people in 2013 to increase its total population to nearly 8.3 million.

Please, see the George Mason NOVA Housing report for information on how Virginia’s housing market will need to accommodate this future growth.

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